Trump's COVID

U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un talk to each other during their meeting at the truce village of Panmunjeom in Paju, Gyeonggi Province, June 30, 2019. / Korea Times file

Pompeo cancels visit to Seoul

By Kang Seung-woo

U.S. President Donald Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis is expected to affect President Moon Jae-in's peace initiative of engaging with North Korea unfavorably, according to diplomatic experts, Sunday.

Trump's infection has practically put an end to speculation over an "October surprise" summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for a breakthrough in stalled denuclearization talks ahead of the Nov. 3 U.S. presidential election. This will also weigh negatively on Moon's Korean Peninsula peace process that could have been boosted by an improvement in relations between the United States and the North.

On Friday, the White House announced that the U.S. president and the first lady had tested positive for the coronavirus and later that he had been transferred to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center.

Speculation here had been mounting that Trump and Kim may have arranged their fourth meeting for before the election, something that the South Korean government has tried to broker in an attempt to keep momentum for the denuclearization talks alive and get the two leaders to discuss bringing an end to the Korean War. The three-year conflict ended in an armistice signed by the U.S.-led United Nations Command, and China and North Korea, leaving the two Koreas technically still at war.

To discuss the peninsula issues with the U.S., Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Hyun-chong, Vice Foreign Minister Choi Jong-kun and Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs Lee Do-hoon recently traveled to Washington, D.C.

However, the U.S. commander-in-chief's testing positive for COVID-19 has put State Secretary Mike Pompeo's planned visit to Seoul later this week on the shelf, dashing Moon's hope for an October surprise.

Pompeo cancels visit to Korea 2020-10-04 10:48  |  Foreign Affairs Trump said to be improving but next 48 hours 'critical' 2020-10-04 08:57  |  World
"Secretary Pompeo expects to be traveling to Asia again in October and will work to reschedule visits on that trip, that is now just a few weeks off," the U.S. State Department said in a press statement, Sunday.

Although Pompeo was highly anticipated to pressure the South to join its anti-China alliance during his stay, speculation had arisen that he could reach out to the North to arrange a summit. In addition, Pompeo was expected to pay a courtesy call on Moon during the expected visit.

"An October surprise related to North Korea could be either a Trump-Kim summit or the North's test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), and given Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis, there is zero chance that he will sit down with Kim before the election," said Park Won-gon, a professor of international politics at Handong Global University. He also believes that high-level provocations are also unlikely to occur in the run-up to the U.S. election.

Since Moon called for global support for a formal declaration to end the Korean War in his United Nations speech last month, the government has made efforts to improve stalled inter-Korean ties as well as broker denuclearization talks between Washington and Pyongyang, but with Trump sidelined, this plan is unlikely to come to fruition.

"In the wake of Trump contracting COVID-19, the South Korean government's drive for the end-of-war declaration as part of Moon's peace initiative has been brought to a halt," Park said.

"In addition, the Korean Peninsula peace process is committed to advancing inter-Korean relations, but North Korea has remained mum on the South's request for a joint investigation into the recent killing of a South Korean government official by the North. In that respect, the peace efforts are unlikely to make headway."